Tropical Meteorology Real-Time Forecast Accuracy (Average Error based on Real-Time Forecasts)

The years where a particular forecast were issued are in parentheses

December Forecast

Named Storms: ± 4.3 (1992-2011)
Named Storm Days: ± 30.2 (1992-2011)
Hurricanes: ± 3.0 (1992-2011)
Hurricane Days: ± 14.9 (1992-2011)
Major Hurricanes: ± 1.7 (1992-2011)
Major Hurricane Days: ± 5.4 (1992-2011)
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity: ± 62.8 (1992-2011)

April Forecast

Named Storms: ± 4.1 (1995-2011)
Named Storm Days: ± 27.6 (1995-2011)
Hurricanes: ± 2.9 (1995-2011)
Hurricane Days: ± 14.3 (1995-2011)
Major Hurricanes: ± 1.7 (1995-2011)
Major Hurricane Days: ± 5.3 (1995-2011)
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity: ± 59.7 (1995-2011)

June Forecast

Named Storms: ± 2.8 (1984-2011)
Named Storm Days: ± 19.1 (1984-2011)
Hurricanes: ± 2.0 (1984-2011)
Hurricane Days: ± 11.2 (1984-2011)
Major Hurricanes: ± 1.4 (1990-2011)
Major Hurricane Days: ± 4.4 (1991-2011)
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity: ± 45.4 (1991-2011)

August Forecast (Only Includes Storms Forming after 31 July)

Named Storms: ± 2.4 (1984-2011)
Named Storm Days: ± 15.9 (1984-2011)
Hurricanes: ± 1.7 (1984-2011)
Hurricane Days: ± 9.5 (1984-2011)
Major Hurricanes: ± 1.0 (1990-2011)
Major Hurricane Days: ± 4.0 (1990-2011)
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity: ± 35.6 (1990-2011)